$30M Spent To Go Backwards

Well, its that time.  Time to look back at the last 9 months and go "How did we screw that up so badly?".  Because we did screw this up badly.

Paxten Aaronson - $7-$8.5M

Morgan Whittaker - $10.7-13M

Sayed Abu Farkhi - $6M

Loic Williams - $3.5M

On the high side that's over $30M spent in the last 15 months.  Four of the highest transfer fees ever paid by this club.  The end result of that is a team that finished one place lower than last season.

Now that's not to say these were bad acquisitions (not all of them at least) but its a great example of how just buying players doesn't make a team.  We put more money on the field than we have in any other two or three seasons combined and had our 18th best of 31 seasons.

There are two notable names missing from that list.  Lucas Herrington and Rafa Navarro.  Its understandable to think that we fell apart after they were sold (because we did) but we were better with them.  Except we weren't, not really.

First 15 games (until the World Cup break): 16 points

7 games after the WC break 15 points (Herrington played in 1 of these games)

Last 12 games: 12 points

Navarro was sold after that 7 game stretch in the middle of the season.  As you can see, the team wasn't any better with or without Herrington.  That's probably a tip of the cap to Loic Williams for being able to step in and fill Herrington's shoes, in the first 15 games and the last 12 games the Rapids had almost identical goals against average.

The problem is this team could never gel, especially on offense.  With or without Rafa the team averaged about 1.33 goals per game.  And they went through 17 games, half the season, only scoring multiple goals in one game.  That was against Kansas City and the second goal came playing 11 v 9.  One we broke that streak we won one more game, the 1-0 over Vancouver.

Oh, but it gets worse.  In everyone of our last 11 games we had a lead or were level at some point in the second half.  We won two of those games and drew 6 of them.  Over the course of the season we gave up the lead 15 times.  We didn't win a game where we gave up a goal after April and we haven't come back to win a game since 2024.  This team had no mental toughness.

We haven't even gotten into individual performances and how they stack up to the cost of a player.  There are many we could talk about but one in particular I want to highlight   Farkhi arrived for $6M, made 3 starts (8 appearances), committed 7 fouls while suffering 6 (as a forward!) and had more cards (2) than shots on target (1).  During the same summer window the Sounders bought Dejan Joveljić for $6M from Kansas City.  Joveljić started 11 matches, scored 5 goals, and only had 1 card.  What are we doing here?

In the end Padraig Smith and Matt Wells need to take a long look in the mirror and figure out how to build a team, not a collection of players that might get sold for a good price.  Because right now this team has no identity other than being the milquetoast also-ran of MLS.  And after 10 years and 4 coaches under this leadership that's no where near good enough.

Well, That Was Expected But Still Sucked

 

Another year, another failure at the finish line.  Colorado needed a win, a draw and 1 other result or a loss and 3 other results.  They got a lost and 9 other results.  When means they finished the season in 12th place.  One place lower than 2025 (though with two more points, they turned a 2025 draw into a 2026 win).

In a game they had to win the Rapids managed...1 shot on target.  Now that shot went in, so credit for Whittaker for finishing it and giving us a lead and a playoff spot for 28 minutes but that's no where near good enough from this team.  Highlighted by our $6M striker being pulled at half for ineffectiveness.  In their last 5 games, in which they went 1-2-2, they had a total of 17 shots on target, and 8 of those came in the 1 win.  They were level or leading in the 74th minute of all 5 games and got 5 points.

We could break down this game and go through what went wrong, but we all know what went wrong.  Not enough talent, a weak mentality, and a coach that apparently was ready to throw in the towel.  At least based on his post game quotes to Burgundy Wave:

“I don’t think we should be as much as I’m upset that we didn’t make the playoffs. I also want to enter the playoffs with a feeling that we can compete in the playoffs, and we can succeed in the playoffs.”

“And I don’t have that feeling. We are where we are as a team. We’ve made some really. We’ve built some strong foundations, which we’re going to have to use in January to build on again,” 

Gee, way to buck up a fan base the team desperately needs Wells.  Who's job was it to get the team there again?  Oh right, yours.  Instead you actually took the team backwards relative to the league.

In the end I'm just tired.  Tired of a team that has no heart.  Tired of a coach who's arrogance makes him believe he and his squad are better than they really are.  And tired of a Front Office that clearly does. not. care., but wants to keep feeding the fan base the same line of B.S. over and over.

Anyway, the season is over.  We'll get into dissecting this season in short order, plenty of numbers to discuss.  We'll also pick the player of the year, review my predictions, and talk about the roster going into the sprint season.  Everything old is new again, you know?

Man of the Match: Probably Nico Hansen, but if they didn't care why should I?

Final Fall Finale

For the last time in October/November the Rapids are playing the last game of the regular season.  After tomorrow (and the playoffs) the schedule shifts to these being midseason games.  Yay.  Tomorrow night we're in our playoff home away from home down in Dallas and we need to treat this like a playoff game because without a win we're likely headed home.  I broke down the scenarios earlier this week but the tl;dr version is that if we don't win we need to be rooting hard for Seattle and Portland to lose (along with some other help if we lose).  Kickoff tomorrow for all Western Conference games is 5pm MT.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zack Steffen (shoulder), D Reggie Cannon (leg), M Ibrahim Sadiq (leg)

That's as short an injury list as we've seen in a while.  There was some thought when he had the surgery that Steffen might make it back for a cameo goodbye appearance by the end of the season but no luck.  I'm assuming we've seen the last of him in burgundy black.  No worries about yellow card accumulation, even if somebody picks up his 5th/8th the suspension is cleared after this game.  Red cards do carry over though.

Maziz is back but with the lengthy time off I'm assuming he's not match-ready to start.  Expect him off the bench, Farkhi as well based on recent use.  With Cannon out Thompson seems to be the favored backup.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Atencio start over Ojediran, but he shouldn't.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Whittaker.  Dallas actually has a slightly worse defense than we do, but a much better offense and they're at home playing for 2nd in the West.  That's too much for us to overcome.  We also don't get enough of the other results we need and we miss the playoffs.

Well, Here We Are

And I'm back.  Had a great time in London, brought back an unusual football shirt (Real Kashmir FC!) and saw a match (Wealdstone for the third time).  I expected to come back and recap Saturday's match against the Fire.  But then the match happened and the less we discuss it the better.  That was bad.

Instead lets see what we need to do going into the final weekend.  Last week starting with the win over Vancouver was big, and the draw in San Jose was a solid result.  I really only expected us to get 2 points in the last 4 games so getting 4 put us in good standing...until Saturday.  The Chicago loss combined with other results has us teetering on the edge of the playoffs.

We're currently in the final playoff spot, coming in second in the three way tie with Seattle and Portland.  Portland wins on total wins and goal differential while Seattle loses with one less win.  That makes one thing simple.

WIN: and we're in

A win in Dallas and we're in the playoffs regardless of what happens elsewhere.  The problem is that Dallas is the #2 team in the West and we're bad on the road.  Oh, and Dallas needs a least a point to lock down the 2 seed.  So the reality is the other scenarios are more likely.  Lets get into them.

If we draw in Dallas that puts us on 44 points and jumps us from 9th to 7th before we consider other results.  But.

The Galaxy play FSL.  If the Galaxy don't lose they'll jump back over us at 45 points.  If FSL wins they'll jump us at 45 points.  Either way one of them is passing us.  So the best we can do is 8th, and if two other teams pass us we're out.  But there are only 2 other teams that could pass us with a draw, Seattle and Portland.  Seattle is hosting LAFC, who is locked into the 6 spot no matter what happens, and Portland is at eliminated Austin.  In other words neither of their opponents have anything to play for.  Despite that, one of them would have to get a result.

DRAW: Portland must lose or Seattle must draw or lose

And now the worst case scenario.  We lose in Dallas.  At that point the Galaxy are guaranteed to finish ahead of us, which only leaves us two spots we could claim.  There are 4 other teams who could claim those sports.  If any more than one of them does, we're out.  So we would need at least three other results to survive if we lose.  That means Minnesota hosting San Jose,, who's trying to catch Dallas, comes into play.

LOSS: At least three of the following four things must happen:

• Seattle loses
• FSL loses
• Minnesota loses or draws
• Portland loses by more goals than Colorado loses by

Also if you're wondering, the only way to avoid the wild-card match is a win, the Galaxy losing or drawing, and Portland winning by less than we win by, drawing, or losing

Right now the odds are favoring Seattle, Portland, FSL, and Minnesota to win, along with Dallas (though they do think us winning is more likely than a draw).

Needless to say things are stacked against us this weekend.  I think its more likely we beat Dallas than we draw or lose and get the other results we need.  Though I think the most likely outcome is that we draw or lose and miss the playoffs.

Stuck In Neutral

This team remains lost as a scoreless draw played out in Portland on Saturday.  In a game they pretty much had to have the Rapids 1 shot on target.  Combined with the Minnesota game midweek the team put up 5 shots on target and scored 2 goals in two games where 1 win was almost a necessity.  Instead they got two draws and are now holding on to the playoffs by their fingernails.  The silver lining is that Portland only getting 1 point all but eliminated them.

However the door has been opened for FSL.  They are 3 points back and if they make up that 3 points (assuming its not via 3 draws) they'll be tied on the first tiebreaker and at worst 1 goal back in GD, the second tiebreaker.  If you're wondering Colorado plays 1st, 3rd, and 4th placed in the West and 4th placed in the East.  FSL plays 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 14th in the West.  I know which schedule I'd rather have.

So far this season Colorado has only beaten 3 teams with more points than them right now, Houston, the Galaxy, and LAFC.  And other than the LAFC win the other two were in the first two months of the season.  In fact the Houston game was the last game we won when we allowed a goal.  We've also drawn 3 teams above us in points, two of them since the break, but the only one on the road was also back in April against LAFC.  Essentially 26 of our 38 points came against teams worse than us, an there's no more of those on the schedule.

As far as Saturday's game goes, it was really a bunch of meh punctuated by some poor officiating.  Colorado should have given up a PK when Navarro send Fernandez flying into the boards, but Portland should have had a yellow card (and some refs would have gone red) when Yapi took an elbow to the head before that.  There was even a scuffle before halftime that only resulted in opposing yellows.  The choice to sit Aaronson with no hint of injury in an important game was certainly noticeable.  I realize it was a 3 game week but at this point of the season it needs to be all hands on deck.

There's a big week coming up with a trip to San Jose sandwiched between home games against Vancouver and Chicago.  That said, I'm not going to be here for it.  I've got a business trip coming up at the end of the week so I'll have no coverage of the Vancouver or San Jose unless I get very bored in my hotel room across the pond.  I might get a preview up for Chicago as I will be home in time to attend that one, at worst we'll have a recap of the full week after Halloween.

Man of the Match: Nico Hansen.  Had a couple of big saves to preserve the shutout which was enough to stand out with all the average play on the field.