Can A 7th Placed Team Have A Must-Win At This Point?

Seattle's Seafair Pirates, a pack of rogues 

Avast there!  Your local crew has an appropriate nautical opponent for International Talk Like A Pirate Day tomorrow   So drink up me hearties!  Yo ho!

Ok, I can't keep that up for a full preview.  But yes, the Sounders are in town tomorrow night to face a Rapids side that's staggering a bit after the midweek USOC loss.  Seattle is beat up themselves and in a death spiral, they've gone 12 games without a win.  This is the easiest game left on our schedule (home against the weakest team left) and its a must win.  Colorado needs 9 points in the last 9 games to get to the playoff average and if we can't get 3 here I question where we're going to get them.  This is about as much a must-win as we can have.  Kickoff is at 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: M Youssef Maziz (leg), 

SUSPENDED: D Kosi Thompson (yellowcard accumulation)

No surprises there, but good to see Maziz upgraded at least.  Also of note not this week but next, both Farkhi and Frederick have been called up by their national teams (Israel and T&T)  so they won't be available in LA.

Its time to see what the new guys can do.  Yapi is not working as the striker and there's no next week for Farkhi, so throw him out there and see how long he can go.  Same with Whittaker.  The rest is fairly obvious.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Aaronson.  That score seems to be our home MO, why predict anything else?

Colorado Crumble

A pitiful effort saw the Rapids run out of their own building last night with barely a whimper.  For all the talk of being a new era with Demoff taking more interest and Wells coming in we saw the same old Rapids problems as we've seen for almost 10 years.  A team that can only work when things are going their way and all their starters are available. , Any kind of mental pressure like missing leaders or giving up the first goal and the team crumbles.

In this case it was third-string keeper Adam Beaudry, pushed into service by Nico Hansen's suspension (something we all forgot about until the lineup came out) who tried to pull a full Joe Nasco after misplaying a backpass, failed, and gave up an easy goal.  As we all know the Rapids don't come back after giving up the opener (its been 2 years!) and sure enough they didn't this time.  For the third time this season a bad backpass sequence cost Colorado against St. Louis and in the end the newcomers beat us by a combined 5-0 over the three games with those mistakes.

Even a 1-0 loss off a bad individual error would have been disappointing but acceptable, sometimes the bounces don't go your way but instead the team gave up.  Two more goals when St. Louis sliced or defense open because they just wanted it more.  The easy blame on this game is to point at Beaudry and say if he had done better by not giving up that goal things might have been different.  Its the general take on the loss last time we were this close, the 1999 final.  But much like Ian Feuer that night the goalkeeper wasn't really the problem.

We could have build a brick wall across goal and it wouldn't have mattered because in the biggest game in 5, if not 10, years there was no chance this team was going to score a goal.  The only shot on goal we had all night was right before Beaudry's gaffe, and it was an weak ground shot from Minoungou right at the keeper.  We played 62 minutes from behind and didn't put a single shot on net.

Its not hard to conclude that the Front Office sold our best chance at a trophy in 10 years for $12M.  I don't know that having Rafa last night wins the game, but I'm sure having Rafa and Mihailovic would.  Instead they got $20M, the amount they invested in Aaronson and Whittaker, and the two of them combined for 5 chances created and 3 shots with none on target.  Since the sale Rafa is averaging a goal every 58 minutes of game action.  The Rapids as a team are averaging one every 180 minutes.

Both Yapi and Farkhi looked ineffective as the loan striker which really makes you question where the goals are going come from the rest of the season.  In the first 8 league games this season the Rapids scored multiple goals 6 times, including 4 goals twice and one 6 goal effort.  In the 17 leagues games since they've scored multiple goals once, and the second goal was against 9 men.  My first thought was that they had to shift to focusing on defense, as they gave up 14 goals in those 8 games, but in the last 8 games (including last night) we've given up 10 so that doesn't seem to be the reason.  I think its likely that after 8 games there was enough tape on the Rapids for the league to figure out Wells' system and he won't, or can't, change it.  Thus the reason for backpasses that keep killing us.

More on this tomorrow but Seattle on Saturday is about as much of a must-win as a 7th place team can get with 9 games to play.  A lack of 3 points this weekend and you have to really question or chances to make the playoffs, much less do anything once we get there.

Man of the Match: Nobody.  You have to want to play to earn the award.

First Home Semi-Final In 10 Years

Not since the Western Conference Final (the MLS Cup semifinal) against Seattle in 2016 have the Rapids hosted a shot at a spot in a final.  While they reached the semis of the Leagues Cup (and eventually claimed the CCC spot in a shootout) that was in LA.  Tomorrow they get another shot at a final in front of their own fans.  The thing standing in their way?  St. Louis City, a team that's already beat them twice this year.  The good news is that Rafa Navarro is cup-tied after playing for us so he can't hurt his old team.  The biggest home game since Thanksgiving 2021 kicks off at 7:30 tomorrow night.

We don't have an availability list for the Open Cup but everyone seemed to come out of this weekend's game healthy so the only real question mark is Maziz's injury.  Given our struggles we need every weapon we can get so hopefully he's able to go.  Both Farkhi and Whittaker are eligible too, but Sadiq is still waiting on his visa.  As far as discipline goes it appears that the competition does not track accumulated yellow cards so Hansen would not be at risk of a suspension in the final should we win if he gets a yellow tomorrow, but I can't confirm that.

Its all hands on deck tomorrow because, to be blunt, this is our only chance at hardware.  We're not going to win MLS Cup this season.  So Farkhi and Whittaker have to start, even if they only have 60 minutes in their legs.  If Maziz can go, you risk him.  If he can't then you're probably looking at Frederick instead.  Everyone else is the clear best option.  I know a lot of these gays played 90 on Saturday but they have to go deep for another intense 90 (or possibly 120) for this one.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Aaronson.  This will be a tense match all the way through and St. Louis will probably have the majority of the play.  My heart is driving me on this prediction more than my head, which would lean towards it being decided in PK's or a loss.  StL is the hottest team in MLS right now and even without Rafa I wonder if we can stop them.  If we were in St. Louis I'd give us a small chance but at home with what we've shown at the Dick since the World Cup break?  That's just enough to put us over the top (I hope!).

Colorado Makes It Six In A Row

With a 1-0 win on Saturday night the Rapids tied their team record with 6 straight home wins, set in 2016.  All 6 have been by shutout which is a new team record.  The league record for consecutive home shutouts is 8 by KC in 2000 (they actually went 87 minutes into their 9th game before Clint Mathis broke the streak).  If you're wondering the Rapids record for a home undefeated streak is 23, stretching from the second game of the 2021 season through May of 2022.

Really the biggest question watching the game, especially after the first couple of minutes, was if we were going to score.  Montreal never really threatened after a shot in the 2nd minute which was 30% of their xG on the night.  No other shot got above 0.07 xG.  Unfortunately the Rapids finishing issues continued Yapi had shots above 0.2 xG in both halves that weren't finished and Fredrick had one in the second half as well.  It took a PK from Aaronson to get one in the back of the net.

Whittaker and Farkhi both game in around the 55th minute for their first ever appearance in burgundy (black).  Whittaker was able to show more in this one, being active on the right side and getting a couple of good looks at goal.  He almost had his first goal in Colorado but his long shot went just wide of the far post.  Farkhi held up the ball well but wasn't as involved in the offense otherwise.  As Matt Wells said after the game their only goal on Saturday was to get some game time in their legs.  Hopefully its enough for them to start on Wednesday.

This was about as low-intensity a game as you can hope for with a league match right before a Cup semifinal.  That said, both Navarro and Williams were pretty toasted by the final whistle and they aren't really replaceable as starters (Travis and Cobb are not the same level).  The good news is that with the home winning streak the Rapids are solidly in a playoff position, so they can afford to sacrifice the game on Saturday against Seattle and just have everyone go all-out on Wednesday.  Also with this win the Rapids have equalized their win total from 2025 with 11.

Man of the Match: Paxten Aaronson.  He's stepped up with Rafa's departure and managed to get it done on offense when nobody else is.  The Rapids have now been outscored 4-2 by their former striker since the trade.

Reinforcements Are Trickling In Just In Time

The Rapids got good news today in their prep for tomorrow night's match against Montreal, Morgan Whittaker has his visa.  No news on Farkhi, who they were hoping for today, and Sadiq is still expected to be a bit longer, but this is the first (and biggest) step as Colorado can now put the biggest signing in their history on the field.  Burgundy Wave thinks he'll start but that might be a stretch given he's had at most one session with the team.  I do expect him to come off the bench though.  Meanwhile the opposition is a truly awful formerly-known-as-Impact side that would bein a race for the Wooden Spoon if SKC weren't having a historically bad year.  Kickoff tomorrow at the Dick is 7:30.

Player Availability:

OUT: GK Zach Steffen (shoulder), M Ali Fadal (head), M Ted Ku-DiPietro (shoulder), M Youssef Maziz (leg), F Mamadou Billo Diop (knee)

SUSPENDED: D Reggie Cannon

As feared when he came off the field in Austin, Maziz's injury was serious enough that he'll miss at least this game.  Hopefully that's all it is.  Also Kosi Thompson is one yellow card from suspension.

I'm assuming we're going to see some rotation and resting players for the semi-final on Wednesday.  Given the thin roster though this seems to be the best we'll be able to do, and Wells may not even go that far.  If Whittaker does start it would be in place of Phillip I assume.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Aaronson and Thompson.  Montreal has a pretty similar offense to ours, which is to say below average, but a truly horrible defense, second-worst in the league.  The Rapids keep the home shutout streak going into the semifinal and this one actually feels like a comfortable win.